Carrier Capacity Outlook: Auto Transport Driver Shortage, October 2026

Published October 12, 2026. Figures below are sourced from the EIA, FMCSA, ACT Research, FreightWaves/SONAR, the Logistics Managers’ Index, and American Trucking Associations data current as of early-to-mid October 2026. Any dollar ranges are clearly labeled as illustrative and are not a quote.

If your car shipping quote has felt harder to pin down lately, the market conditions behind it are real and measurable. Three separate pressures – a national driver shortage, a new federal licensing rule that is actively removing drivers from the road, and diesel prices sitting near all-time highs – are converging on carrier capacity at the same time fall “snowbird” demand starts building on southbound routes. Here is what the data shows this month, and what it means if you’re booking a vehicle shipment.

The driver shortage, by the numbers

The American Trucking Associations’ 2026 estimate puts the national truck driver shortage at approximately 82,000, up from about 78,000 two years earlier, with industry projections pushing the gap past 160,000 by 2031. Separately, one industry analysis of 2026 freight-market disruption found that the freight recession displaced 28,000 truck drivers this year, while federal regulatory actions eliminated another 180,000 from the active pool, with most of those drivers choosing not to return to the industry.

Car hauling absorbs an outsized share of this pain. Moving vehicles on a multi-car trailer takes specialized skill and experience beyond a standard CDL, and it takes longer to train and fully qualify a new car hauler than a dry-van driver – which is part of why industry analysts describe the auto-transport segment as taking one of the hardest hits from the broader driver shortage.

A new CDL rule is pulling drivers off the road in real time

Layered on top of the existing shortage is a federal rule change. FMCSA’s “Restoring Integrity to the Issuance of Non-Domiciled Commercial Drivers Licenses” rule took effect March 16, 2026, narrowing non-domiciled CDL eligibility to H-2A, H-2B, and E-2 visa holders. FMCSA estimates that 97% of the roughly 200,000 non-domiciled CDL holders on the road will be unable to meet the new requirements and will exit the industry over the next one to three years, and an early enforcement wave had already removed roughly 13,000 drivers from the road.

Separately, English Language Proficiency has been a federal out-of-service violation since June 25, 2025. In just the second half of 2025, enforcement generated 12,308 ELP out-of-service violations, and a coordinated January 2026 operation across 26 states placed nearly 500 drivers out of service in three days alone. ACT Research’s Driver Availability Index – a direct read on how many qualified drivers are available to carriers – fell to 30.4 in April 2026, a five-year low, immediately after the non-domiciled rule took effect.

What the capacity indexes say right now

The Logistics Managers’ Index Transportation Capacity sub-index registered 40.0 in August 2026, up from 28.4 in July but still below the 50-point line that separates expansion from contraction – meaning available trucking capacity is still shrinking, just somewhat less sharply than mid-summer. Over the same period, Transportation Utilization rose to 70.6 and Transportation Prices reached 90.0, both pointing toward a market where available capacity is being used harder and priced higher. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index was up 11.3% year-over-year in August 2026, its twentieth consecutive year-over-year increase.

Carrier executives have been blunt about where this is headed. At a recent investor conference, truckload carrier leadership described the capacity correction as still in its “early innings.” Werner Enterprises’ chairman and CEO Derek Leathers has estimated that 250,000 to 400,000 drivers are being forced out of the one-way, for-hire segment of the market specifically – the same segment car haulers compete in for trucks and drivers – noting that of the 3.5 million professional truck drivers in the U.S., as few as 1 million are seated in true for-hire, over-the-road configurations.

Diesel: still near an all-time high

Fuel is compounding the capacity squeeze. The EIA’s weekly on-highway diesel survey put the U.S. average at $6.382 per gallon for the week of September 28, 2026 – down slightly from the all-time weekly record of $6.529 set just the week before (September 21), which itself followed a string of records through September. Regionally, West Coast diesel averaged $7.357 per gallon against $5.955 on the Gulf Coast, a $1.40 spread that matters most on long cross-country lanes. Diesel is also carrying a $1.92-per-gallon premium over gasoline, roughly double the typical structural gap.

The 2026 year-to-date average diesel price through September 28 sits at $5.010 per gallon across 39 weekly readings, ranging from a January low of $3.459 to the September 21 high of $6.529. EIA’s own forecast calls for diesel averaging roughly $5.55 per gallon across the fourth quarter of 2026, before easing toward about $4.40 in 2027.

Illustrative math: what tighter capacity and pricier fuel can add up to

This is an illustrative estimate to show how the inputs interact – not a quote. At 6 miles per gallon, every $1.00/gal diesel moves fuel cost by roughly $0.17 per mile. Diesel is currently running about $1.37/gal above the 2026 year-to-date average, which works out to roughly $0.23/mile in extra fuel cost, or about $350 in added fuel expense on a 1,500-mile truckload. Spread across the 7-10 vehicles a standard open hauler carries, that’s on the order of $35-50 per vehicle from fuel alone, before any separate capacity-driven rate premium a carrier may apply on a tight lane. Your actual quote will depend on your specific route, vehicle type, and timing.

What this means if you’re booking a shipment this month

• Book earlier, not later. With capacity still contracting on the Transportation Capacity index and fall snowbird demand building on I-95, I-75, and I-65, giving carriers 2-3 weeks of lead time – longer on rural or less-traveled routes – gives them more room to fit your vehicle in before trucks fill up.
• Expect more rate variability, not less. Tighter driver supply tends to show up as firmer pricing on in-demand lanes and timing windows rather than a flat across-the-board increase, so two similar-looking quotes can legitimately differ based on route and date.
• Flexible pickup windows help. A driver with a qualified, available truck has an easier time working you into a route when your pickup window isn’t locked to a single day.

For a deeper look at how these same forces moved specific lane pricing last month, see our September 2026 popular-lane price snapshot, and for the diesel and demand picture heading into this month, see our October 2026 market update. If you shipped a vehicle back in late summer, you can compare conditions against our August 2026 capacity outlook. For route-specific cost context, our cross-country route-by-route cost guide breaks down illustrative pricing by distance.

Get a current, no-obligation quote

Capacity conditions change week to week, and the fastest way to know what they mean for your specific route is a real quote. Get an instant car shipping quote from Best Care Auto Transport – we work with licensed, insured carriers and will walk you through timing options given current market conditions.

Sources

• U.S. Energy Information Administration, Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, weekly on-highway diesel price survey (week of Sept. 28, 2026) and September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook
• American Trucking Associations 2026 driver shortage estimates, as reported by AJOT and Trucky
• FMCSA, “Restoring Integrity to the Issuance of Non-Domiciled Commercial Drivers Licenses” final rule (effective March 16, 2026)
• ACT Research Driver Availability Index, April 2026
• Logistics Managers’ Index, August 2026 Transportation Capacity/Utilization/Prices sub-indexes
• Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, August 2026, via FreightWaves
• FreightWaves reporting on truckload carrier capacity exodus and Werner Enterprises CEO Derek Leathers, October 2026
• Super Dispatch industry analysis on driver shortage impacts specific to auto transport/car hauling